A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
